Price signal analysis for competitive electric generation companies

Successful operation and bidding in the competitive electricity marketplace requires well-planned strategies. The appropriate strategy is dependent on the state of the system. Much data (including time series) is available, and a proper analysis of this data can provide insight in choosing the right strategies. Traditional data analysis techniques can be time consuming. Techniques that quickly analyze the data can assist in forecasting price and demand and identifying the present state of the market, which should help the savvy trader in reacting intelligently to the market before its competitors. Advanced data analysis techniques may reveal patterns in the data that may be very helpful in forecasting demand or price. This paper compares several techniques that may help in identifying useful patterns in relevant time series data. These patterns are keys or leading indicators of future electric utility price or demand of electricity. The importance of quickly identifying these signals will increase as competition increases. The techniques being investigated are Fourier and Hartley transforms, line spectrum analysis using both Fourier transforms and Hartley transforms.