Income Expectations, Rural-Urban Migration and Employment in Africa

This article develops a theoretical framework explaining the influence of economic conditions on rural-urban migration in tropical Africa. The model explains the continued process of migration despite high levels of urban unemployment. A lengthy discussion is devoted to short-, intermediate-, and long-term policies for relieving the urban unemployment problem. It is argued that efforts must be made to reduce the differences between the expectation of urban income and real rural income. No one single policy will slow rural-to-urban migration. The author suggests policies that would eliminate factor-price distortions, restrain urban wages, redirect development toward concentrated and comprehensive programs of rural development, resettle and repatriate unemployed urban migrants, and establish capital-goods industries. The capital-goods industries would develop labor-intensive technologies for agriculture and industry. The theoretical model assumes that migrants make decisions about moving on the basis of an expected income and the expectation of an urban job. It is argued that the urban-rural income differences and the probability of securing an urban job determine the rate and extent of rural-urban migration in Africa. If the migrant has a low probability of finding regular wage employment in the short term, but expects the probability to increase over time, the migrant would make a rational decision to migrate. Policies that operate solely on urban labor demand are considered unlikely to reduce urban unemployment. This model better estimates the shadow prices of rural labor.