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ABSTRACT This paper develops a multiple state model to project the number of people with disabilities in the United Kingdom over the next 35 years, thereby identifying implications for demand for long-term care for the elderly in the future. The model requires three types of data: prevalence rate data, transition rate data and trends data. Recent trends in healthy life expectancy data are used to frame the assumptions made regarding changes in the disability rates of the U.K. population in the future. Although there will be a large increase in the number of elderly people in the U.K. over the next 35 years, the projections suggest that the implications for the number of elderly people requiring long-term care could be ameliorated by a reduction in the proportion of older people who are severely disabled.
Rickayzen et al. (Sat,) studied this question.
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