A pre-registration card locking five Mode Identity Theory predictions against four named contenders (ΛCDM, w₀wₐCDM, EDE, MOND) ahead of Euclid Data Release 1, each with a stated falsification threshold. Λ epoch-independence Observable: dark-energy density versus redshift (spectroscopic BAO plus weak lensing). Prediction: Λₒbs = 3/R² is the topological ground eigenvalue, so ΩDE (z) is flat across all DR1 redshift bins. Λ is constant in cosmic time, not a fitted parameter. a0 (z) evolution Observable: the acceleration scale at z ≈ 1 to 1. 5 via galaxy-galaxy weak lensing and the stellar-mass-halo-mass relation. Prediction: a0 (z) = a0 (0) · H (z) /H0, so the acceleration scale grows with redshift (about 2. 4× local at z = 1. 5, about 20. 5× at z = 10). wₑff (z) trajectory Observable: the dark-energy equation of state from spectroscopic BAO plus photometric weak lensing. Prediction: wₑff (z) > −1 at all z in the fiducial-matter split (proven analytically) ; any apparent CPL phantom crossing is a template-projection artifact, not a physical crossing. Stellar mass function at z ≳ 10 Observable: abundance of ~10¹0 solar-mass galaxies at z > 10 in wide-area photometry. Prediction: JWST-class massive galaxies persist in Euclid statistics, reachable with standard star-formation efficiency (εSF ≲ 1) given a0 (z = 10) ≈ 20. 5× local. (1+z) ¹ coefficient in H² (z) Observable: a linear-in- (1+z) term in the expansion rate extracted from high-precision BAO. Prediction: this coefficient is negative with magnitude |β| < 0. 012 tied to the phase parameter s0, and the term is absent from every standard FLRW component (radiation, matter, curvature, Λ).
Blake Shatto (Fri,) studied this question.