Socio-Political Determinants of Violence and Recidivism in North Macedonia: Short-Term Imprisonment and Probation

Cycles of violence and recidivism in North Macedonia remain deeply shaped by intersecting socio-political and socio-economic determinants. Despite the enactment of a probation law in 2015, the criminal justice system continues to rely heavily on custodial sentences, particularly short-term imprisonment, which has repeatedly been shown to have limited rehabilitative impact. Penal statistics indicate persistently high recidivism rates among these offenders, suggesting imprisonment often reproduces, rather than disrupts, patterns of violent behaviour. The analysis situates these trends within the broader socio-political and economic landscape. Structural factors such as unemployment, poverty, and social exclusion aggravate reintegration, while ethnic tensions and political instability further limit the effectiveness of penal policies. At the same time, EU accession requirements and Council of Europe standards have introduced external pressure to reform, leading to gradual advances in probation services, conditional release mechanisms, and community-based alternatives to incarceration. Drawing on official statistics, national reform strategies, and international monitoring reports, the paper argues that violence prevention cannot be addressed solely through penal reform but requires a multidimensional approach. Effective policy must integrate socio-economic support, reintegration programmes, and community engagement with legal and institutional reform. By highlighting the interplay between structural determinants of violence and criminal justice policies, the case of North Macedonia offers broader lessons for post-socialist societies navigating democratic transition and European integration.