Abstract Monitoring bird populations is important for tracking trends and spotting declines early. Reliable population data helps guide conservation efforts and assess extinction risks. Gathering consistent data in remote or uneven terrains is challenging, especially for the Sooty Falcon (Falco concolor) , which was recently classified as Vulnerable due to various threats and a declining population trend. This study analyses the population trends of this small falcon based on breeding pairs over a 12-year period, using data from 10 countries within the species’ range. A stochastic simulation, accounting for uncertainty through error classes, was performed using bootstrap methods to refine population projections. The global average change over three generations indicates a slight decrease of -5.45%, with confidence intervals ranging from -30% to +31%. Declines are observed in most countries, particularly across the Arabian Peninsula, where large islands and coastal areas have seen a 20–25% reduction. In contrast, desert regions have experienced a 20–30% increase, primarily due to expanded exploration, not necessarily to real population growth. This comprehensive study highlights the need for expanded monitoring and coordinated efforts to address the ongoing population decline, with particular attention to vulnerable populations in diverse environmental contexts.
Leonardi et al. (Mon,) studied this question.