Abstract Adoption of electric vehicles and battery stationary storage is increasing lithium demand. The EU is import-dependent and has formulated supply-security targets for self-sufficiency (10% by 2030) and recycled content (6% by 2031 and 12% by 2036). This study critically assesses these targets by developing scenarios for lithium supply, demand, and recycling, and shows that recycled batteries make only a modest contribution to self-sufficiency, falling short of policymakers’ targets. The finding is sensitive to assumed battery lifetimes. The EU lithium projects designated as strategic are more than sufficient to meet the 2030 self-sufficiency target. By 2036, self-sufficiency ranges between 31% and 78%, assuming all projects commence as announced. In addition, future supply from European companies’ investments in other continents is estimated to exceed domestic output. The findings indicate that resource efficiency and substitution are key to achieving high levels of self-sufficiency, while recycling has a limited role in the short term.
Månberger et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: