ABSTRACT Aim While climatic niche dynamics of invasive plants have been increasingly studied worldwide, comparative assessments disentangling niche conservatism from expansion into analogue and non‐analogue climates remain very limited in France. Here, the climatic niche dynamics of four South African plant species established in France were quantified, and spatial changes in climatic availability across France were estimated to support invasion risk assessment and management prioritisation. Location France. Taxon Angiosperms ( Arctotheca calendula , Carpobrotus acinaciformis , Carpobrotus edulis and Oxalis pes‐caprae ). Methods We quantified climatic niche overlap, stability, expansion and pioneering between native and introduced ranges using ordination‐based niche dynamics metrics, including Schoener's D and niche equivalency and similarity tests. Future climatic availability was projected under emission scenarios to estimate spatial turnover, distinguishing areas of climatic retention, loss, and gain. Results Climatic niche overlap between native and introduced ranges was limited to moderate, yet niche stability within analogue climates was consistently high, indicating overall climatic niche conservatism. Species responses differed markedly. Oxalis pes‐caprae showed the strongest conservatism, with full niche equivalency across ranges. In contrast, A. calendula , C. acinaciformis, and C. edulis exhibited partial niche shifts. Notably, A. calendula and C. edulis demonstrated significant niche pioneering, expanding into wetter and more climatically stable environments in France relative to their native South African ranges. Future projections revealed substantial spatial turnover, with concurrent contractions of currently suitable areas and emergence of newly suitable territories, particularly for species exhibiting greater niche flexibility. Main Conclusions South African plant species exhibit both niche conservatism and divergence in France, reflecting species‐specific strategies shaping invasion dynamics. Climatic pre‐adaptations alone do not determine niche outcomes; ecological traits and native niche breadth likely contribute to niche differentiation across ranges. Effective management requires moving beyond generic approaches toward species‐ and scenario‐specific strategies that consider the timing and magnitude of each species' redistribution.
Abdallah et al. (Mon,) studied this question.