Numerical Exaggeration in the Mamluk Era: A Critical Study of Political and Military Events (648–923 AH / 1250–1517 CE)

Aims: This research aims to examine the phenomenon of numerical exaggeration in the Mamluk era (648–923 AH / 1250–1517 CE), particularly in relation to political and military events, by assessing the reliability of numerical data reported in historical sources, uncovering the political, rhetorical, and intellectual motives that contributed to their inflation, and elucidating the impact of such exaggerations on shaping the image of wars, conflicts, and political coups within Islamic historical consciousness. Methodology: The research adopted a critical historical approach based on the analysis and comparison of historical texts, through the examination of multiple narrations of a single event to identify points of agreement and divergence in the numerical data contained therein. The study also employed the Ibn Khaldunian method of critiquing historical accounts and linking them to the laws of civilization and human social organization, alongside an assessment of the demographic, economic, and military capabilities of the Mamluk state as a criterion for judging the realism of the numbers cited in the sources. Results: The findings indicate that numerical exaggeration represents a prominent characteristic of Mamluk historical writing. A number of historians deliberately inflated the figures of armies, casualties, and captives to magnify military victories, emphasize the intensity of battles, or portray political crises and internal coups in a more dramatic manner. The results further revealed significant discrepancies in the numerical accounts of the same event across different sources, attributable to weak statistical precision, the influence of rhetorical style, and reliance on uncritical transmission of reports. The study also demonstrated that many of the figures appearing in historical narrations exceed the actual demographic, economic, and military capabilities of the Mamluk state. Conclusions: It can be concluded that the numerical data found in Mamluk sources cannot be treated as precise statistical information; rather, they should be understood within their symbolic, functional, and narrative frameworks. The study further affirms the importance of adopting a critical comparative reading of historical sources and expanding the application of the Ibn Khaldunian method alongside modern interdisciplinary approaches in the study of Islamic history. This contributes to the reassessment of Mamluk state history on more accurate and objective scientific foundations, and to mitigating the influence of numerical exaggerations on the interpretation of historical events.