Urban-driven landscape fragmentation is a major factor contributing to amphibian population decline yet its genetic consequences remain incompletely understood. We examined the genetic structure and variability of the common toad (Bufo bufo) in Warsaw, Poland, using seven nuclear microsatellite loci and mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences (800 bp). Samples (N = 97) were collected from six breeding sites representing contrasting urban habitats on both banks of the Vistula River. Genetic analyses revealed low but significant population differentiation, elevated inbreeding coefficients, and a heterozygosity deficit despite relatively high effective population sizes. This pattern is consistent with post-fragmentation genetic inertia, in which demographic buffering temporarily maintains genetic diversity despite reduced connectivity. Consequently, contemporary genetic patterns may underestimate the extent of ecological isolation imposed by urban infrastructure. Mitochondrial analyses identified seven haplotypes, including six previously unreported, forming a star-like network topology indicative of a single postglacial colonization event. The Vistula River did not constitute a significant barrier to gene flow, based on pairwise FST and hierarchical AMOVA. Supervised feature selection (MCFS-ID) identified specific alleles and body mass as key discriminants among sites, suggesting emerging responses to local urban conditions. Our results indicate that urban common toad populations can retain substantial genetic variation despite fragmentation, although continued isolation may ultimately increase inbreeding and genetic drift.
Sztencel-Jabłonka et al. (Sat,) studied this question.