Rethinking Criminal Onset: Age at First Offence, Persistence, and Sex Differences

How frequent is criminal onset at each age, and to what extent does onset age predict continued offending across the life course for men and women? Criminological theory and empirical research put emphasis on young offenders, as early onset is a clear risk-factor for persistence, and often assume later onset implies lower risk of continued offending, yet the prevalence and persistence of adult onset remain disputed. It is also contentious whether there is any meaningful onset after reaching adulthood. While it is clear that the risk of onset declines with age, the dominant empirical approach in the literature is to identify the most common trajectory groups, using methods that are less likely to identify segments of unusual offending patterns, such as onset after normative ages. Using nationwide administrative records of solved offences for the resident population of Norway, we provide descriptive accounts of first registered offences in 2010 and subsequent continuation across all ages (N = 22 610; observation window 1982–2020). We find registered onset across all ages for both men and women, and while the risk of continuation declines with age, a non-ignorable number of offenders continue after onset even in older ages among both sexes (21% among men and 23% among women with onset at age 40 or older).