Cycles, Constraints, and Systemic War: Structural Carriers of International Conflict Dynamics

Abstract Wars between Europe’s great powers did not occur at random. From 1453 to 1945 they unfolded in accelerating cycles, each ending in a systemic war that reset rules and institutions. The escalation culminated in a finite-time singularity with the Second World War, marking a structural transition to a new global order. By analysing cycles rather than single conflicts, we show that the tempo of systemic breakdowns can be inferred from pre-1914 information, that war severity follows a predictable blow-up pattern, and that the post-1945 decline in hazard reflects reorganisation rather than the end of violent conflict. Early-warning patterns in state-system indicators track these shifts, revealing a common carrier that links acceleration, systemic reset, and regime change. This approach reframes conflict as a structural process governed by constraints rather than accident and offers quantitative tools to understand today’s crises.