Asean Trade Integration: Evolution and Effects

The article examines processes of international economic integration using the example of trade integration in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The bloc has a long history (founded in 1967) and adheres to the initially established principles of development and has not yet been subject to processes of disintegration and fragmentation (unlike the European Union). The beginning of trade integration within ASEAN was laid in 1977 with the creation of a preferential trade zone. In 1992 a free trade area (AFTA) was established and a long process of gradual leveling of customs duties followed. Since 2018, almost duty-free movement of goods has been carried out within ASEAN (98,6% of the volume of commodity items is duty-free). The remaining goods are excluded from the liberalization process (1 036 commodity items in total). The functioning of AFTA is accompanied by the effects of trade creation and diversion. The analysis showed that trade creation was evident for all ten countries, for the bloc as a whole and the distinguished subgroups (ASEAN-6 and ASEAN-4). Trade diversion is typical for only four countries (Brunei, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar) and is absent in other cases. The reason lies in the low share of intraregional trade within ASEAN (less than 25%), which has remained virtually unchanged over the past 30 years, and the growing dependence on other countries, especially China. ASEAN has free trade agreements with most major trading partners, so reducing customs duties within the bloc does not «switch» commodity flows in favor to imports from its member states. With the growing confrontation between China and the United States, the dependence of ASEAN countries on trade cooperation with China also grew (its share in the ASEAN foreign trade turnover increased from 9,3% in 2005 to 19,8% in 2023). However, the reasons for this situation require further research using regression analysis methods