Methodological Evaluation of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Rwanda: A Randomized Field Trial for Risk Reduction Assessment

Off-grid communities in Rwanda face challenges related to energy access, often relying on expensive or unreliable grid-based solutions. A randomized field trial was conducted among 100 households in off-grid communities, employing a logistic regression model to analyse data on system reliability and user satisfaction. The analysis revealed that the new solar-powered systems had an average success rate of 95% in providing continuous power, with significant improvements noted in user satisfaction levels compared to traditional kerosene lamps (p < 0.01). This study provides robust evidence for the adoption of off-grid energy solutions as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Communities and policymakers should consider investing in these systems, which not only enhance energy security but also contribute to sustainable development goals. Model estimation used θ̂=argminθ∑ᵢ(yᵢ,f_θ(xᵢ))+λθ₂², with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.