Next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation focuses on predicting a user’s subsequent location based on historical check-in data. In practice, however, check-in logs frequently contain uncertain records in which ambiguous spatial, temporal, or behavioral information obscures the underlying mobility regularities, thereby degrading prediction performance. To address this challenge, this study first infers user preferences from historical trajectories and reweights transition importance based on temporal and spatial proximity. It then models transition relationships using three complementary feature dimensions: POI category, spatial area, and routine versus non-routine behavioral patterns. Using transition probability analysis, feature-level dependencies in user mobility are systematically investigated. The findings demonstrate that these transition features contribute unevenly to predictive performance, with area-based transitions yielding the strongest results when used in isolation. Nonetheless, their joint integration consistently achieves the highest accuracy, underscoring the critical role of transition-aware modeling. Across two real-world datasets, the proposed framework consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in top-ranked accuracy (Recall@1) and ranking quality (NDCG@1), while delivering competitive effectiveness at higher cutoff values (k=3 and k=5). Notably, on the NYC dataset, MTF-POI achieves the highest Recall@1 (+19.01% over the strongest baseline) with a marginal trade-off at Recall@3, reflecting the framework’s design emphasis on precise next-step prediction.
Sooknit et al. (Mon,) studied this question.