Assessing the energy system impacts of Morocco's nationally determined contribution and low-emission pathways

Morocco's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets are recognised as one of the most ambitious globally. This study analyses the energy system, emission, and cost impacts of meeting Morocco's (conditional and unconditional) targets for 2030 and assesses long-term Paris-compatible strategies. A sophisticated country-level energy system model that incorporates detailed representations of energy demand and supply is used to analyze various scenarios with different climate policy settings. The analysis shows that current policies in Morocco need significant strengthening to meet the targets outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution for 2030, based on the elimination of coal-fired power plants and the uptake of renewable energy technologies, in particular wind and solar power. The long-term transformation to a low-emission economy is based on accelerated energy efficiency improvements, electrification of end uses, further expansion of renewable energy, and emergence of low-carbon fuels. The study provides insights on the challenges to achieve deep decarbonization of Moroccan economy without compromising its energy security, but also on the opportunities from energy sector restructuring, including reduction of fossil fuel imports and boost clean investment.