Abstract Rationale Propofol sedation in mechanically ventilated patients often causes clinically significant hypotension. While we concurrently developed and validated a machine-learning (ML) classifier to predict hypotension risk, accurately estimating the timing of hemodynamic deterioration could enable more precise, proactive interventions. This study aimed to develop and externally validate ML models that predict not only whether hypotension will occur, but also when it is likely to develop after propofol initiation. Methods ML models were developed using retrospective data from adult, mechanically ventilated ICU patients who received propofol infusion for ≥24 hours across four Mayo Clinic sites from 2018 to 2024 and developed hypotension (≥2 consecutive MAP readings ≤60 mmHg within 15 minutes) during the first 6 hours of sedation. The MIMIC-IV dataset was used for external validation. Features were selected using a union of Boruta and LASSO-penalised quantile regression. Two quantile algorithms (LASSO-penalised quantile regression and LightGBM) were trialed to predict the conditional median and interquartile range (IQR) of time to hypotension. In addition, two probabilistic algorithms (NGBoost and Mixture Density Network) were trialed to predict the full conditional distribution. The quantile models were tuned via Bayesian optimisation to minimise pinball loss during leave-one-site-out cross-validation (LOSO-CV), whereas probabilistic models were tuned to minimise the Continuous Ranked Probability Score. The algorithm with the lowest average pinball loss was deemed the best-performing algorithm. Model performance was evaluated using median absolute error (MAE), IQR coverage, and IQR width. Feature importance was evaluated using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results We included 3482 patients from the Mayo Clinic for model development, with 115 patients from the MIMIC-IV dataset used for external validation. Patient characteristics in the modeling dataset included age, sex, admission SOFA scores, weight, ICU admission source, and initial propofol dose. The best-performing algorithm was LightGBM-based quantile regression. The average MAE during LOSO-CV was 4.11 hours (95% confidence interval CI 3.98-4.23), versus 4.83 hours during external validation. The average IQR coverage and width during LOSO-CV was 0.49 (95% CI 0.48-0.49) and 7.12 (6.89-7.35), respectively, versus 0.07 and 6.51 during external validation. Conclusions We developed and externally validated a quantile regression model that predicts both the timing and uncertainty of propofol-induced hypotension in mechanically ventilated ICU patients. This model provides clinicians with actionable time estimates that may facilitate preemptive hemodynamic interventions and optimize sedation management. Prospective validation, expanded predictors and clinical impact assessment are warranted. This abstract is funded by: None
Deng et al. (Fri,) studied this question.