ABSTRACT I provide a precision‐sampler‐based replication of the multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility outlier‐adjusted model of Stock and Watson (2016) applied to inflation in the United States and the Euro Area (EA). I find a substantial post‐2020 increase in trend inflation for both the United States and the EA, and estimate end‐2024 trend inflation at 2.3 and 2.0 percent, respectively.
Max-Sebastian Dovì (Mon,) studied this question.