Threat Perception in International Crisis

Threat perception is the decisive intervening variable between action and reaction in international crisis. When threat is not perceived, even in the face of objective evidence, there can be no mobilization of defensive resources. Hence the phenomenon of surprise. Conversely, threat may be perceived, and countermeasures taken, even when the opponent possesses no malicious intent. The project described here set out to investigate empirically, on the basis of the comparative analysis of historical case studies, the conditions under which threat is perceived. Six examples were chosen, each involving a different state actor, from the past hundred years. Adequacy of documentation and diversity were two criteria of selection. Examples consisted of: