Active Surveillance of Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Frequency and Time Course of the Six Most Common Tumor Volume Kinetic Patterns

Background: The change in size of the papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) nodule during active surveillance has traditionally been characterized as either stable, increasing, or decreasing based on changes in maximal tumor diameter or tumor volume. More recently, it has been observed that the changes in tumor size observed during observation are more complex with tumor volume kinetic patterns that can be characterized either as stable (Pattern I), early increase in volume (Pattern II), later increase in volume (Pattern III), early increase in volume followed by stability (Pattern IV), stability followed by an increase in volume (Pattern V), or a decrease in tumor volume (Pattern VI). Methods: The frequency, time course, and clinical correlates of these six tumor volume kinetic patterns were analyzed in a cohort of 483 patients with low-risk PTC up to 1.5 cm in maximal diameter followed with active surveillance at our center for a median of 3.7 years. Results: The cumulative incidence of an increase in tumor volume for the entire cohort was 15.9% confidence interval (CI) 11.8–20.0 at 5 years. At 5 years, most tumors demonstrated stability (78.8%, Pattern I) with 10.0% showing early growth (Pattern II), 4.1% late growth (Pattern III), 1.9% growth then stability (Pattern IV), 0.6% stability then growth (Pattern V), and 5.6% with a decrease in tumor volume (Pattern VI). Tumor volume doubling time during exponential growth significantly differed across the kinetic patterns, with median values of 2.4, 7.1, and 3.3 years for Patterns II, III, and IV, respectively ( p < 0.01). Similarly, the time to a change in tumor volume was significantly different across the kinetic patterns, with median values of 1.5, 3, 1.6, 4.7, and 4.1 years for Patterns II, III, IV, V, and VI, respectively (analysis of variance, p < 0.01). Clinical correlates at baseline were not associated with tumor volume kinetic pattern. Conclusions: These six kinetic tumor volume patterns provide a comprehensive description of the changes in PTC tumor volume observed during the first 5 years of active surveillance.