Conspiracy belief and opposition to wind farms: A longitudinal study

The extension of wind energy plays a crucial role in achieving global climate goals. However, wind farms often face opposition by local communities. Recent research found cross-sectional evidence that conspiracy belief is an important predictor of wind farm opposition. The current work extends this finding and sheds light on the temporal relationship between these variables. A preregistered, three-wave study among German adults ( N = 297) using Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel analyses found support for our hypothesis that an increase in conspiracy mentality (i.e., the general propensity to believe conspiracy theories) predicts more negative attitudes towards wind farms close to one’s hometown four months later. We also found evidence for the opposite direction, namely that an increase in negative attitudes predicts higher conspiracy mentality four months later. Thus, conspiracy belief and wind farm opposition seem to mutually reinforce each other. Interventions and preventive measures should aim to break this vicious cycle that otherwise might curb the progress of the energy transition. • The longitudinal relationships between conspiracy mentality and wind farm opposition were examined using Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel analyses • Increases in conspiracy mentality predicted more negative attitudes towards wind farms over time • At the same time, increases in negative attitudes predicted higher conspiracy mentality over time, speaking for a mutually reinforcing effect