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This study reports the evaluation of the validity and utility of the Medicare heart transplant center selection process, as outlined in its 1986 Heart Coverage Regulations. A total of 9401 heart transplants performed in the U.S. between 1986 and 1991 were analyzed. The outcomes assessed were mortality and the occurrence of infection during the hospital stay. Outcomes experienced by centers with and without Medicare approval were compared directly and following adjustment for patient risk factors. Patients at centers that satisfied the Medicare criteria experienced lower mortality. The risk-adjusted hazard ratio for death over the five years of observation was 0.874 (P = 0.005). The probability of death following a transplant at a Medicare-approved center was 7.0 +/- 0.4% at 30 days and 16.2 +/- 0.6% at one year, and 9.2 +/- 0.4% and 19.2 +/- 0.6%, respectively, at centers without Medicare approval (P = 0.001). The difference appeared to be principally associated with death within 30 days of admission due to nonspecific graft failure. The posttransplant infection rate at Medicare-approved centers was 0.743 (P < 0.001) but this result is strongly confounded with differences in reporting patterns of the two types of centers. Criteria used by HCFA identify medical centers where outcomes of heart transplantation, as measured by mortality, are superior. This difference is established early, persists over time, and is not attributable to the numerous risk factors considered in our models. Overall, the results of the present study suggest that "centers of excellence" can be identified through the evaluation of center characteristics and outcomes, and that this approach chosen by HCFA may have broad health care systems applications.
Krakauer et al. (Wed,) studied this question.