Key result
Submaximal exercise metrics at AT and RCP predict VO2max with ~91% accuracy.
Why the study?
Oxygen uptake is a critical measure of fitness and vital sign, leading the authors to derive and internally validate prediction models for maximal VO2 based on submaximal exercise or somatic variables.
Can submaximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters and somatic variables accurately predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) in male endurance athletes?
Cross-Sectional (n=4,424)
No
Can submaximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters and somatic variables accurately predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) in male endurance athletes?
Effect estimate: R2 = 0.91
Highly accurate prediction models using submaximal CPET variables allow for robust estimation of VO2max without requiring maximal exertion, which is highly beneficial for clinical populations and sports testing.
May support VO2max estimation from submaximal CPET in male athletes; leaves open prospective validation and clinical translation.
Objectives Oxygen uptake (VO 2 ) is one of the most important measures of fitness and critical vital sign. CPET is a valuable method of assessing fitness in sport and clinical settings. This study aimed to: (1) derive prediction models for maximal VO 2 (VO 2max ) based on exercise variables at anaerobic threshold (AT) or respiratory compensation point (RCP) or only somatic and (2) internally validate provided equations. Methods 4424 male endurance athletes (EA) underwent maximal symptom-limited CPET on a treadmill (n=3330) or cycle ergometer (n=1094). The cohort was randomly divided between: variables selection (n runners =1998; n cyclist =656), model building (n runners =666; n cyclist =219) and validation (n runners =666; n cyclist =219). Random Forest was used to select the most significant variables. Models were derived and internally validated with Multiple Linear Regression. Results Runners were 36.24±8.45 yrs.; BMI=23.94±2.43 kg·m −2 ; VO 2max =53.81±6.67 mL·min −1 ·kg −1 . Cyclists were 37.33±9.13 yr.; BMI=24.34±2.63 kg·m −2 ; VO 2max =51.74±7.99 mL·min −1 ·kg −1 . VO 2 at AT and RCP were the most contributing variables to exercise equations. Body mass and body fat had the highest impact on the somatic equation. Model performance for VO 2max based on variables at AT was R 2 =0.81, at RCP was R 2 =0.91, at AT&RCP was R 2 =0.91 and for somatic-only was R 2 =0.43. Conclusions Derived prediction models were highly accurate and fairly replicable. Formulae allow for precise estimation of VO 2max based on submaximal exercise performance or somatic variables. Presented models are applicable for sport and clinical settling. They are a valuable supplementary method for fitness practitioners to adjust individualised training recommendations. Funding The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.
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Wiecha et al. (2023) conducted a cross-sectional in Healthy male endurance athletes (runners and cyclists) (n=4,424). Submaximal cardiopulmonary exercise variables (at AT and RCP) and body composition measurements was evaluated on Model performance (R2) for VO2max prediction (R2 = 0.91). Prediction models for VO2max based on submaximal exercise performance at the respiratory compensation point (RCP) and anaerobic threshold (AT) achieved a high accuracy of R2=0.91.
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