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To identify upland cotton varieties with consistently high yields and stable performance across variable growing seasons in Xinjiang, we evaluated yield data for 11 varieties over 4 consecutive years (2022–2025). Among the tested varieties, 02 achieved the highest average yield (10.85 kg per plot). Variety ZMBH1939 showed the most stable yield across years (coefficient of variation = 0.1557). Analysis of variance showed that variety, year, and their interaction significantly affected yield (p < 0.01 for all). Further evaluation using two complementary multi-environment trial models (AMMI and GGE) revealed consistent findings: 02 and FC190 were high-yielding but moderately stable; W21 and TH02 showed moderate yield with good stability; and XLM108 combined high yield potential with excellent stability. The control variety Z49 (CK) exhibited good stability but only moderate yield. Among the four trial years, 2023 was the most representative and discriminatory environment, making it ideal for screening superior varieties. Exploratory analysis of climatic covariates suggested that accumulated temperature (≥10 °C) may be associated with interannual yield variation (R2 = 0.464), and low precipitation was linked to stronger environmental discrimination. However, given the limited number of environments (n = 4), these findings are preliminary and hypothesis-generating rather than confirmatory. This study provides a framework for understanding climate-driven yield variation in regional cotton trials and identifies promising germplasm (notably XLM108 and 02) for further breeding and promotion. Validation in multi-location or longer-term trials is required before drawing definitive conclusions.
Fang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.