R3PACK WP7 D7.3 "What if" scenarios and policy recommendations

Deliverable 7.3 translates the empirical results of the R3PACK project into forward-looking policy scenarios and concrete recommendations to support the large-scale transition away from single-use plastic packaging in Europe. It builds on four years of demonstrations on reuse systems and fibre-based substitution across retailers, manufacturers and logistics actors. The deliverable develops three contrasted “what if” scenarios for the 2035–2040 horizon: business as usual, collaborative regional initiatives, and fully integrated European solutions. These scenarios illustrate how regulatory coherence, consumer engagement, financial support and standardisation directly influence the scalability and market penetration of reuse and fibre-based packaging. The analysis shows that both reuse and fibre-based substitution are technically feasible for many food categories, but their economic viability and large-scale deployment depend on coordinated action across the value chain. Fragmented regulation and limited infrastructure would keep solutions marginal, while harmonised EU frameworks, shared standards and pooled investments could enable reuse and fibre-based packaging to break through in the market. D7.3 concludes with policy recommendations structured around four key levers—regulatory, education, financial, and standardisation/governance—providing a strategic roadmap for moving from pilots to interoperable European-scale systems aligned with PPWR ambitions.