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Abstract Context Under global climate change and intensified human activities, the Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB) face escalating challenges to ecosystem services (ESs), including water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Understanding ES dynamics is essential for sustainable landscape management. Objectives This study aimed to (1) predict spatiotemporal changes in land cover and ESs from 2030 to 2100 under SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, and (2) quantify pixel-scale ES trade-offs/synergies and their driving factors. Methods An integrated SSP–LUH2–PLUS–InVEST/CS framework was developed, combining climate scenarios, land use simulations, and ES assessments. The framework was applied to both basins to project future land cover changes and quantify ES responses under varying radiative forcing scenarios. Results Forests expanded notably in the YZRB under SSP1–2.6 and SSP3–7.0, largely replacing grasslands and croplands, whereas grasslands remained in the YRB. Water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ) improved the most under SSP1–2.6, whereas carbon sequestration (CS) peaked under SSP5–8.5. Synergies prevailed among WY–SC, CS–SC, and SC–HQ across all scenarios, whereas CS–HQ shifts to trade-offs under SSP5–8.5. ES interactions were scenario-dependent, with precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, land cover, and elevation as key drivers, shifting from land use-driven under low emissions to climate-driven under high emissions. Conclusions Future ES management in the YZRB and YRB should adopt scenario-specific strategies, optimizing land use under low-emission pathways and applying climate-adaptive interventions under high-emission scenarios to sustain ES provision.
Yu et al. (Mon,) studied this question.