Do Commercial Debt‐for‐Nature Swaps Matter for Forests? A Cross‐National Test of World Polity Theory1

We present cross‐national models of forest loss from 1990–2005 that examine the impact of commercial debt‐for‐nature swaps. In doing so, we find substantial support for world polity theory that poor nations that implement these swaps tend to have lower rates of deforestation than poor nations that do not implement these swaps. We also find support for another aspect of world polity theory—poor nations with higher levels of international nongovernmental organizations have lower rates of forest loss. A number of other factors, including structural adjustment, debt service, democracy, population growth, and domestic economic activity, also predict deforestation. We conclude by discussing the findings, theoretical implications, methodological implications, policy suggestions, and possible directions for future research.