The EU and Mass Protests in the Neighbourhood: Models of Normative (In)action

Since the 'Bulldozer Revolution' in Serbia in 2000, the EU has had to deal with a wave of mass protests in its neighbourhood. Its responses to the 'colour revolutions' in the East and Arab uprisings in the South have cast doubt on its foreign policy identity as a normative power and its commitment to promote democracy outside its borders. Based on an analysis of thirteen cases in 2000-2012, the article identifies four models of EU involvement in the protests: (1) model power, (2) promoter of (regime) change, (3) mediator/facilitator and (4) guardian of stability. It discusses these models in light of the concept of 'normative power Europe' (NPE) and stresses the need to look at the interplay between normative and power political considerations in order to account for the EU's (in)action in different cases. First, model power has been an important form of EU normative power in the Eastern neighbourhood, but its effects have been unintended and often troubling for the EU. Second, promoting regime change, as the EU has done in the cases of Serbia and Syria, can be a strong form of pursuing normative goals, but it contradicts the emphasis of NPE on normative instruments. Third, mediation/facilitation, practised most successfully in the case of Ukraine in 2004, comes closer to the specific characteristics of NPE; yet, the EU's readiness and ability to mediate has often been limited. Fourth, defending stability has been the most common EU response, reflecting its security concerns and a preference for system change over regime change.