The Role of Climate Perceptions, Expectations, and Forecasts in Farmer Decision Making: The Argentine Pampas and South Florida: Final Report of an IRI Seed Grant Project

This project sought to extend previous research efforts with both a “front end” – mental models that influence climatic expectations and forecast applications – and a “back end” – the decision processes in response to climate expectations derived from farmers’ mental models and externally-provided information. Research in this report was motivated by three lines of social science inquiry: (a) the importance of subjective perception of risk, (b) differences in the impact of small-probability events when information about them is learned by personal experience over time as opposed to being provided as a statistical summary, and (c) the role of both material and nonmaterial (including cognitive and affective) goals and processes in risky decision making. This study provided multiple insights into determinants of use of climate information related to perception and communication, and some evidence that improved presentation may overcome some of the barriers and enhance utility. We see several avenues for extending results and addressing limitations of the project’s scope and study design.