The Knowledge of What Might have Been

This study examined certain affective and attributional consequences of outcomes and "near outcomes"in the lives of target individuals. A total of 121 subjects read versions of scenarios that systematically differed in the valence of a major life outcome and whether the outcome actually or only nearly happened (the "near outcome"). Results generally indicated that near outcomes as well as actual out-comes had significant impact on the perceived affective consequences of the situation, and that near outcomes also affected trait inferences and predictions regarding the target person. Differences between the perceived affective consequences of positive near outcomes and negative near outcomes were generally a function of differences in the valence of the near outcomes rather than of differences in objective circumstances. Other results also reflected a derogation of the "near winner." The personalities of individuals who narrowly missed experiencing a positive event were rated more negatively; they also were judged as less likely to be successful and less likely to feel positively about their lives in the future. These results are discussed in terms of the suggestions of Kahneman and Tversky (1982) that individuals who learn of a near outcome may simulate its actual occurrence, and that the "simulation heuristic "may shape both inferences and affective states.