Common themes for ecologists in global issues*

It is a real pleasure to be here today as a non-ecologist speaking to so many ecologists. I would like to show how ecology is absolutely central to everyday living. We need to link the type of detailed work you do with the policy makers in London, Washington DC and various capitals around the world. I would like to put this in the context of sustainable development. We need to alleviate poverty: 1·3 billion people live on less than a dollar per day, the cost of half a pint of beer; 3 billion people, i.e. half the world's population, live on less than 2 dollars per day; 800 million people are malnourished today, especially in Africa. Furthermore, 1·3 billion people have no clean water, a major health threat; 2 billion people live without sanitation; 2 billion people have no electricity and obtain their heat and cook their food by burning dung and biomass, leading to incredible levels of indoor air pollution that result in early death and miserable lung disease; 1·4 billion people are exposed to extremely unhealthy air outside, again because of burning biomass. Alleviation of these appalling conditions underlies the challenge of development and the elimination of poverty, which is the primary role of the institution at which I work: the World Bank. Meeting our basic human needs of food, energy and clean water using current practices is leading to environmental degradation at the local, regional and global scale; and as the environment degrades it becomes more difficult to meet those basic human needs. It is an unsustainable cycle. For example, to meet the ever-increasing global food supply requirements, we have either irrigated our lands, increased the amount of land used for farming, that is to say cut down our pristine forests (expanded the area of agricultural production), or increased the use of nitrogen fertilizers (intensified agricultural production). Each of these three approaches is to some degree leading to environmental degradation. Irrigation in many parts of the world has led to the salinization of soils and a loss of soil fertility, resulting in a loss of agricultural productivity. And as we cut down our forests, especially using unsustainable slash-and-burn agricultural techniques in the tropics, we are causing a significant decrease in the amount of primary forest, which is leading to a loss of biological diversity at the species and genetic level. A loss of genetic diversity threatens the long-term security of our food supply because of the loss of wild relatives, which we may well need in the future. In addition, cutting down our forests leads to a significant emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Furthermore, excessive use of nitrogen fertilizers has increased the atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide, also a greenhouse gas. Today, about 6 billion tonnes of carbon are emitted into the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels and 1·6 billion tonnes of carbon from unsustainable agricultural and forestry practices. Also, the methane cycle is being changed. Emissions of methane have increased in part because of rice production and cattle rearing. Changes in nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane, all greenhouse gases, are contributing to a significant change in the Earth's climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to lead to significant regional changes in agricultural production. Later, I will show that this will probably lead to an increase in agricultural production in the middle and high northern latitudes, and a very significant decrease in production in the tropics and subtropics where there is hunger and famine today. The basic problem is that the practices we use today to meet our basic human needs are clearly unsustainable. There are seven global environmental issues for which there are either international conventions or principles agreed at Rio at the Earth Summit in 1992: • climate change; • loss of biological diversity; • desertification and land degradation; • stratospheric ozone depletion; • deforestation and unsustainable forestry; • degradation of fresh and marine waters; • persistent chemicals that disrupt the hormone system, the ‘so-called’ endocrine disrupters. One problem is that most scientists and policy-makers address these environmental issues in isolation. This is a mistake because they are highly coupled, both from a scientific and policy perspective. The optimum approach to deal with these issues is to understand the scientific linkages among them. Then effective policies, practices and technologies can be developed and implemented to address simultaneously each of these issues while meeting a basic human need. Let me briefly examine some of the linkages among these For example, a change in the Earth's climate will have a significant on the and of and on biological A world will result in the of and to Changes in the and of will change the of these on the climate by the and of greenhouse In addition, as the Earth's climate the temperature will stratospheric which in the amount of that the Earth's this again will have an on biological Furthermore, loss of stratospheric by and and changes the temperature of the atmosphere and can the Earth's climate. Changes in the Earth's climate can also have a major on land Changes in the Earth's climate by an increase in greenhouse will temperature patterns more there will be significant changes in the and patterns of and because of the there will be changes in will result in changes in at the and regional climate that in a world the and of the world will more and the of practices. In desertification changes the of the climate at the regional level. Changes in climate are projected to have major on the world's In a world where the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has many that of all species would of the species in the tropics, and of the species in One of the most the of climate change projected by the climate can species or will there be a significant in It is that we be at each of these environmental issues in as a of And we that each of these environmental issues is about a environment and the supply of food, energy and the challenge for the scientific is to understand this highly system, and to it in an to the policy-makers in London, and so that they can effective use of our scientific the of the day, policy will be as as the scientific we it is to that we use a approach for these we need to use an and with with The challenge is we need to these issues in a we are to the of sustainable human development. It is that human are the environment at the local, regional and global the global the Earth's climate is biological diversity is being the stratospheric ozone is being and water and land are being Let me briefly examine the current in biological diversity and the of It is very that human are the the of agricultural and at the of the there is a which is an of and we that the of an species from to million this the current of species is the it is that the have a on the Earth's biological diversity is being because of • of • of • of wild • of • air and water and • climate change The for this loss of biological the for biological to an and there has a increase in per for in and in In addition, the Earth's has increased a on our we change our current practices and technologies the there may have to be major in per use of and irrigated This will to be a major challenge for some which has of the in the and of some of the per land or have to the of biological and to the global at the the of food, for for health and they do the of that the very for sustainable development and human i.e. of air and water, and of the Earth's of and of temperature and of soils and soil fertility, of of and of do the the the wild of an agricultural we need in the the of biological and the and of biological as can be used to the and of a is on we are to to them. and a have to the of the Earth's the at dollars per that their are it and are or the is very One of the world's forests, especially the forests, is the high carbon to tonnes of carbon per One approach to the climate is the of from energy A approach is the of carbon in the of carbon at and dollars per at dollars a the carbon of forests is about dollars per of the of forests is to a to and The World is a for to biological For example, are all the to a of about to of use of A of an use of a that in environmental degradation the use of as and are and to use in the they stratospheric leading to an increase in the Earth's with on and human and and a of the the scientific that stratospheric to to be emitted into the atmosphere for probably a than they have the production and of most with this ozone will well into the middle of the with increased levels of the Earth's The of people to about people about today and do about the long-term of their they do about the environment that they will for their their or and international these are scientific issues There is a need to the with and we the scientific to the policy-makers of the world. A by policy-makers is are the of to the and are the we to the we need to biological diversity and a and the of and and using to The type of you do to our of or more of these and it is these that is so There is a need to understand the the and of For example, we need to understand how many species can be are or changed. are some of the that it is so to in that there can be of the A of the of a • or • human and • forests, and and • the of In as the and the all of their is in their human than and i.e. it is in human and in many of the World a of their is in of change in and the of environmental degradation are into the of a is significant are For example, the for a as are without into the of and environmental degradation the of the in real is for degradation and of the down to about Furthermore, is for the degradation of water and air it in a some of the used in human an system, an increase in human A that is is to degree are of in a sustainable A decrease in may be for it is used for the The basic is that the of and environmental degradation be into the of a the most developed the and do into changes in all of their One a cut down a to or use for In many the is that because probably has very to A has a very and very and has to to an to a major challenge is to and use so that there is an for the to cut down there are The is to understand the of biological and The is to that will a real for the to do the The forests of the world are being the forests in and about million are of million In less than million of million has the of forests probably around forests are in biological the that it is to them. it is to the and forests in which are also to and environmental and agricultural are the major to of all forests today are In probably are in all of and in of The current of loss of forests is unsustainable. the of forests in have in and The of loss of land has by an increase in of the forests have into The loss of forests is leading to a loss in biological of species are and are to we forests to be at the current of about per the an loss of species is This would be a of of the have that we are on the of the the to be by human We are also and genetic the be absolutely as the environment especially the Earth's climate. We are clearly a major loss of at the species the and the genetic because of land with these human on will loss of biological diversity There is no that human are the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse to energy and practices. In some of the world the atmospheric of are as a result of the combustion of and slash-and-burn the the atmosphere. have of while have of a of the greenhouse is while the is There is no that the Earth's climate is land and have increased half a degree the with land have patterns are and has and The changes in be by in i.e. changes in and the of energy the and the atmosphere. The in global temperature is with climate which that in a world it will be In addition, have the changes in temperature as a of and with those by that into increased atmospheric of greenhouse gases, and stratospheric ozone a there is a and the on that human are a human on the Earth's climate. has the world. It is in and most of and In and parts of are that in the there will be more in and more in precipitation patterns in with a decrease in to of an to half an in changes would lead to more and more Furthermore, some changes in the in causing more especially in We are will to the and of and Each of these projected changes in climate has major for and do to the of greenhouse because of climate change in population, and energy practices will result in the atmospheric of from of parts per million to and parts per million by leading to changes in temperature of would be a of change in temperature than in the Changes in temperature will be with There will be of to in and high in the with at high in the water in so the energy of the atmosphere is down to very in the around down in atmospheric changes in temperature would be by a of can be very the global of greenhouse today, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would for of because of the very with carbon atmospheric is by the of the atmosphere and the There is the atmosphere and the the that the of carbon dioxide is the of the and the the atmospheric concentration of is it to atmospheric atmospheric are it many to level. it is in the would to and species loss is We also that most of have to deal with climate change in an we have to into the of i.e. to The of these for policy-makers is that they for they to greenhouse do change as all and they do like the of that it would to to the with a in the of greenhouse A by the the atmospheric concentration of to increase at per for it The of to for well atmospheric is an increase in is in that be for There are clearly major for and One of the we have to is a change in the Earth's climate lead to a change in The that water is the from the the where it into the In a or a will or will This because an increase in the amount of precipitation in the would that the would less This will be by an increased from the will less both by being less and by being because of global the water will as a part of the global there to be a or a down of the it would have major for the climate in also major for and marine these projected changes in climate are to some for most there will be significant on human and The primary challenge for is to the of changes in precipitation and and in with in the atmospheric of carbon on and In to being about the of climate changes on there is also a major about the of climate change on water especially on and lands, and the of on human It is to that climate change is an and that most to both the and the of changes in climate. And are more than developed because of of and our to the of climate change at the regional are our to climate at a regional is some of the are well and the are to One of the major is to understand the of changes in climate on the patterns of and and The of and of the today is in the tropics and In a it is to to in both the northern and and to an increase in the of from about million per to as many as million per in a the would increase from 2 million to in the This in to health In developed as the which have health and where is a projected in the of no significant in health change and changes in the atmospheric of carbon dioxide the and of In addition, species may be and there will be changes in productivity. It is to that to climate For example, are most by and current of that they will be by an increase in because they can at a to that at which is projected to they will be by changes in significant have in many of the of the world in to by the The that in a world that is many most of the of the world would be highly to changes in both temperature and are being used to the current of from to forests, to and there are significant in the of the especially in high northern a major challenge is to these of are used to would in a they that there would be major changes in the of and forests, with a significant of the of the climate has a A that needs to be is will to species the from climate to that of a world. this will a climate to a there is a significant amount of scientific conditions in on the of to of carbon less is about the of The that in a world there would be significant decrease in area the is into is for the the an increase in area is on how the is and with climate also leads to the changes in the patterns of the there are significant using a it with three climate In all three the that the of the of will in all three the that would no be on the of the the a system, the species would change A is how climate change and will In addition, a significant increase in the of is in and that again may species to of climate biological diversity around the world is by In of are being by as are of on For are being by species in and on of the to biological diversity be climate change and the of have clearly very of the world today is very There to as to the of and agricultural as to the of species in to climate In to we are to have to the of species a of biological 800 million people are and as the world's and in some food is to the three to show on the global agricultural production be to production in the of climate change carbon dioxide and changes in to climate change will and among the patterns of production. In is projected to increase in middle to high latitudes, on changes in temperature and of in the tropics and where some are their temperature and where are to especially in and in agricultural of are projected carbon dioxide there may be increased of hunger in some in the tropics and subtropics where many of the world's people 1·3 billion people do have to of water, and 2 billion people do have to Today, some in the and are as or in the of climate this is to by in part because of in from and change will the and of in some in where are a are highly to climate change because many are in and can have on exposed agricultural and lands, and It is that about half of the world's in there is a among Changes in climate will and an increase in and changes in the of may and will the of the and the of the will increase the of to of about million people per to a would increase this to about a would increase this to The will be A of have that and are to a In the of land are projected to from for for for to about of the of of people, and in the of the loss of in of of for most of these are to many are per of is A of policy-makers that the cost of climate change is it cost of that there are many and practices that can be used to greenhouse without a significant on Furthermore, it is to that there are of the that the of climate change in a world be and of world and and of in are very the basic is that has and The environment be to be from development. For example, the issues of climate change and the and sustainable use of need to be into all development There is a need to into and and climate change into forestry and agricultural practices. agricultural practices will soil soil fertility, and in the of the climate by atmospheric and techniques can be used to while is clearly the by the challenge of using is the projected changes in climate to the climate to change as projected by the and in we are to use or on area to we need to very about how can be used in to species to In addition, it is that the of has to It is no to about an approach is For example, a is in in the of and Washington in the which is to the current and the forests into the challenge is to increase the of or to understand the and of so that they can be used in a sustainable in to meet the needs of a population, which is One of the of the on is the of the that can be from This can be by how to and use in an One of the most approaches to is to the that lead to the loss of There is a need to agricultural and forestry that lead to unsustainable practices. of the most effective to climate change is to energy and that result in the production and use of for fossil and water amount to of of dollars The problem is that the those they are to the and lead to the use of For example, a problem in many is that water is as a than an there is to and use it it is that there is to the of the that are leading to the loss of are in to the amount of for the and sustainable use of biological A major in and with in agreed to an decrease in greenhouse in to is a major the Earth's climate It is as as many people especially the environmental and it that this will the climate change it will an to that there will be a for both in the production and use of In addition, there will be an ever-increasing for and energy production The in is the meeting the of the on i.e. of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse at a that will to the climate is the of it is a scientific The role of the scientific is to policy-makers of the of policy have to is 2 of the that be to as all do species the may have the in scientific they have that are 2 also that production be they food production be at the local, regional or global global food production may be by climate there will clearly be significant changes at the and regional with significant in agricultural in and an is how to the that food production be A of 2 of the is that development be sustainable again the scientific can policy-makers that scientific and 2 human water and human it is that there be sustainable development without into health water issues and human issues where the scientific can for is to the in scientific and the of these are for policy is that of the of the climate There is a and and some of the of climate change are Furthermore, there are change is a global most of the increase in greenhouse in the atmosphere are to from the both in and in per In in most of the will probably from The have the will all will have to their greenhouse to of greenhouse in the the the lead to their We by the of greenhouse on The of is a major in the to that there be on from and as for the There is a in and For example, agricultural will increase in the and decrease in and The scientific can policy-makers understand the of levels of greenhouse and to The scientific can also with and to in the most and to greenhouse The of and techniques will from to will work in will work in There will need to be an approach to all of these the levels of have to the of global of greenhouse that are with levels of atmospheric at parts per million of that the is global would have to be at the long-term by the would that global increase to about billion tonnes of carbon by and decrease to 6 billion tonnes of carbon per from energy the in all the is or global will have to be less than projected for as in the there be significant changes in energy technologies and there will be major on human and and especially water and of the basic with these global environmental issues are the and human is and as as to to the and with the and with and changes in climate and to the global and from to to The is the and in the it is the or the and of to many are very to with and climate A major challenge is to to on environmental as climate change and loss of biological for which they the today, there are scientific the of are to be there is a of some in the and the they today will have their they are of me briefly address the role of the World which that environmental issues of water and air in with global environmental issues a major to sustainable development. The World is with to the environment into all into and climate into We are to the to be i.e. we are with environmental and to and to the of loss of and environmental degradation in the of We that there is a need to increase the to deal with global environmental issues and that will environmental in the has work on for global as There is no that our are more In there no for today the has a of billion of it is from the the are which that have to the The like most that the most are in the The is with to a can be to about of the most around the world. Furthermore, the that while are there be a or the world's forests are being at a the World is a with the the the with around the is to million of and to an million of into real In addition, the that very forestry at is the World is to million of the world's forests in the tropics and in and into a with In the scientific needs to the with the a more and approach and deal with environmental issues in a more we need to to more to and the so that the can understand the their the environment and sustainable development.