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Using an observed relation between speeds of CMEs near the Sun and in the solar wind, we determine an “effective” acceleration acting on the CMEs. We found a linear relation between this effective acceleration and the initial speed of the CMEs. The acceleration is similar to that of the slow solar wind in magnitude. The average solar wind speed naturally divides CMEs into fast and slow ones. Based on the relation between the acceleration and initial speed, we derive an empirical model to predict the arrival of CMEs at 1 AU.
Gopalswamy et al. (Sat,) studied this question.