Modeling Community Recovery from Earthquakes

This paper sets out the foundations for developing robust models of community recovery from earthquake disasters. Models that anticipate post‐disaster trajectories are complementary to loss estimation models that predict damage and loss. Such models can serve as important decision support tools for increasing community resilience and reducing disaster vulnerability. The paper first presents a comprehensive conceptual model of recovery. The conceptual model enumerates important relationships between a community's households, businesses, lifeline networks, and neighborhoods. The conceptual model can be operationalized to create a numerical model of recovery. To demonstrate this, we present a prototype computer simulation model and graphical user interface. As the model is intended for decision support, it is important to involve potential users in model development. We conducted a focus group involving Puget Sound, Washington, area disaster management practitioners to elicit local insight about community recovery and model development needs, using the prototype as stimulus. Important focus group issues included potential model inputs, useful recovery indicators, potential uses of recovery models, and suitable types of software systems.