External shocks and policy change: Three Mile Island and Swedish nuclear energy policy

Abstract In the study of the dynamics of policy change, the advocacy coalition framework (ACF) has attracted much attention. The ACF hypothesizes that external perturbations are a necessary condition for major policy change. Despite the importance of this insight, this article argues that it is still necessary to conduct research to uncover the micro-level processes at work when policies change following external perturbations. Two claims are introduced, one explaining major policy change in the wake of external perturbations in terms of learning and the other arguing that policy change derives from actions to safeguard political interests. As an empirical test, the claims are applied to the Swedish nuclear referendum following the Three Mile Island accident. Contrary to what the ACF predicts, the findings suggest that short-term interests can be important in explaining major policy change. Learning was not equally prominent but is still useful in explaining how political interests affect policy choices. Keywords: Advocacy coalition frameworkexternal perturbationsinterestslearningnuclear energy policypolicy change. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Paul Sabatier, Paul t'Hart, Eric Stern, Barry Holmström, Charles Parker, the analysts at CRISMART, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on previous versions of this article.