A Bayesian Analysis of a Switching Regression Model: Known Number of Regimes

Abstract Some aspects of Bayesian methods of inference relative to switching regression models are analyzed. It is shown that Bayesian confidence intervals and tests may be obtained by using Student's t and χ2 distributions. Mean biases and MSE of some Bayesian estimates are compared by Monte Carlo methods with those of the ML estimate. The MSE of the Bayesian estimates were uniformly smaller than those of the ML estimate. An experiment designed by Quandt 11 is also analyzed.