The Escalation of Inter-Nation Conflicts

Abstract Nations engaged in a dispute may escalate their use of coercion in order to raise the costs of the fight to the other side and gain concessions. As a fight continues, escalation is made more probable by changes in the motivation and the expectations of the participants. The goals of each participant may expand and winning the dispute may become more important than it was initially. Each may come to expect the other to increase its coercion beyond previous boundaries and no longer see the prospect of a negotiated settlement. In addition, normative and other inhibitions on the use of force tend to decrease once the use of coercion has begun. The ways in which a conventional war might escalate to a nuclear war are discussed. The conditions under which deescalation of coercion will occur are outlined.