Linkage versus Leverage. Rethinking the International Dimension of Regime Change

Studies of regime change since the cold war have drawn considerable attention to the of democratization.1 Scholars have pointed to diverse forms of external influence, including diffusion, promotion of western democracy, multilateral conditionality, and the spread of new communications technologies and transnational human rights networks.2 Nevertheless, the relationship between the post-cold-war international environment and regime outcomes remains poorly understood. Recent evidence suggests that many of the most widely studied forms of international influence, including conditionality, U.S. policy, and democracy assis tance programs, have not had a consistent democratizing impact. Moreover, interna tional effects vary considerably across regions. They are stronger in Central Europe and Latin America than in Africa, East Asia, and the former Soviet Union. A new framework for analyzing the international dimension of regime change can help explain these patterns. The post-cold-war international environment, in this framework, operates along two dimensions: western leverage, or the degree to which governments are vulnerable to external democratizing pressure, and linkage to the West, or the density of ties (economic, political, diplomatic, social, and organization al) and cross-border flows (of trade and investment, people, and communication) between particular countries and the United States, the European Union (EU), and western-led multilateral institutions.3 Leverage in the absence of linkage has rarely been sufficient to induce democratization since the end of the cold war. Although external pressure at times succeeded in forcing elections or blocking authoritarian regressions, the more diffuse effects of linkage have contributed more consistently to democratization. Linkage has raised the cost of autocratic abuses by increasing their international salience and the likelihood of external response, enhancing the power and prestige of opposition forces, and expanding the number of domestic actors with a political, economic, or professional stake in adhering to international norms Cross-national variation in international influence on democratization is rooted in differences in degree of linkage and leverage. Where linkage is extensive, as in much of Central Europe and Latin America, international pressure is intense and consis tent, at times contributing to democratization even in countries with unfavorable domestic conditions. Lower levels of linkage create a more permissive international