Predicting Treatment Response to Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Panic Disorder With Agoraphobia by Integrating Local Neural Information

IMPORTANCE: Although neuroimaging research has made substantial progress in identifying the large-scale neural substrate of anxiety disorders, its value for clinical application lags behind expectations. Machine-learning approaches have predictive potential for individual-patient prognostic purposes and might thus aid translational efforts in psychiatric research. OBJECTIVE: To predict treatment response to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) on an individual-patient level based on functional magnetic resonance imaging data in patients with panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/AG). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We included 49 patients free of medication for at least 4 weeks and with a primary diagnosis of PD/AG in a longitudinal study performed at 8 clinical research institutes and outpatient centers across Germany. The functional magnetic resonance imaging study was conducted between July 2007 and March 2010. INTERVENTIONS: Twelve CBT sessions conducted 2 times a week focusing on behavioral exposure. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Treatment response was defined as exceeding a 50% reduction in Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale scores. Blood oxygenation level-dependent signal was measured during a differential fear-conditioning task. Regional and whole-brain gaussian process classifiers using a nested leave-one-out cross-validation were used to predict the treatment response from data acquired before CBT. RESULTS: Although no single brain region was predictive of treatment response, integrating regional classifiers based on data from the acquisition and the extinction phases of the fear-conditioning task for the whole brain yielded good predictive performance (accuracy, 82%; sensitivity, 92%; specificity, 72%; P < .001). Data from the acquisition phase enabled 73% correct individual-patient classifications (sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 67%; P < .001), whereas data from the extinction phase led to an accuracy of 74% (sensitivity, 64%; specificity, 83%; P < .001). Conservative reanalyses under consideration of potential confounders yielded nominally lower but comparable accuracy rates (acquisition phase, 70%; extinction phase, 71%; combined, 79%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Predicting treatment response to CBT based on functional neuroimaging data in PD/AG is possible with high accuracy on an individual-patient level. This novel machine-learning approach brings personalized medicine within reach, directly supporting clinical decisions for the selection of treatment options, thus helping to improve response rates.