A single measurement of serum total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in middle-aged men maintained a regular and monotonic relationship with first coronary events over 25 years (r=0.99 for both).
Cohort (n=1,605)
Yes
Does a single measurement of serum total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure predict the occurrence of a first coronary event over 25 years in middle-aged men?
A single measurement of serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in middle-aged men is highly predictive of first coronary events over a 25-year period.
Effect estimate: r 0.99
OBJECTIVE: To study the time-related association of a single measurement of serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure with the occurrence of a first coronary event in a population sample of middle-aged men. METHODS AND RESULTS: A single measurement of serum total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure (along with age, cigarette consumption, physical activity at work and body mass index as possible confounders) was made in 1,605 coronary disease-free men aged 40-59 belonging to the Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study. During 25 years of follow-up 353 men developed a first event, that is a coronary death (sudden or not), and definite or possible myocardial infarction. Twenty-five partitioned proportional hazards models were solved, one for each independent year of follow-up, to predict the risk of incident events. Single-year hazard functions, separately for serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure, were cumulated and smoothed. The resulting curves showed a regularly increasing risk for coronary events. They fit straight lines, with large correlation coefficients for both serum total cholesterol (r = 0.99) and systolic blood pressure (r = 0.99). These slopes were similar to the coefficients estimated by a single proportional hazards model solved for all events during 25 years. CONCLUSION: A single measurement of serum total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in middle aged-men maintains a regular and monotonic relationship with occurrence of a first coronary event during 25 years of follow-up.
Menotti et al. (Sat,) conducted a cohort in Coronary disease-free (n=1,605). Single measurement of serum total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure was evaluated on First coronary event (coronary death, sudden or not, and definite or possible myocardial infarction) (r 0.99). A single measurement of serum total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in middle-aged men maintained a regular and monotonic relationship with first coronary events over 25 years (r=0.99 for both).