Mechanisms of Climate Change in the Semiarid African Sahel: The Local View

Abstract Application of the moist static energy framework to analyses of vertical stability and net energy in the Sahel sheds light on the divergence of projections of climate change. Two distinct mechanisms are sketched. In one, anthropogenic warming changes continental climate indirectly: warming of the oceans increases moist static energy at upper levels, affecting vertical stability globally, from the top down, and driving drying over the Sahel, in a way analogous to the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the global tropical atmosphere. In the other, the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases drives a direct continental change: the increase in net terrestrial radiation at the surface increases evaporation, favoring vertical instability and near-surface convergence from the bottom up. In both cases the surface warms, but in the first precipitation and evaporation decrease, while in the second they increase. In the first case, land surface warming is brought about by the remotely forced decrease in precipitation and consequent decrease in evaporation and increase in net solar radiation at the surface. In the second, it is brought about by the increase in net terrestrial radiation at the surface, amplified by the water vapor feedback associated with an increase in near-surface humidity.