Beyond the Axis of Evil: Ballistic Missiles in Iran’s Military Thinking

Abstract For the past two decades, Iran has pursued a vigorous program to develop ballistic missiles. This article examines the domestic and external factors that have driven this program; the regime’s perceptions of the contribution of ballistic missiles to its security; and the likely future priorities of Iran’s ballistic missile industries. It argues that during the Iran-Iraq War, the imperative to deter Iraqi attacks on Iranian civilian centers and the need to develop a means of delivery for nuclear weapons were the primary factors that drove Iran to acquire a ballistic missile capability. In the postwar years, Iran’s ballistic missile program has been primarily driven by the need to prevent a US invasion through impeding the USA’s ability to project force into the region and threatening to target oil facilities in the Persian Gulf. These requirements have compelled Iran’s ballistic missile industries to concentrate on greater range, improved accuracy, and the development of solid-fuelled engines and more advanced warheads.