Perception of seismic risk in a Muslim city

Natural hazards like floods, tornadoes and landslides are rarely discussed in the Qur‘an while earthquakes are addressed in their own Surah al Zilzal (99th Surah), which separates earthquakes from other hazards in meaning, significance and risk perception throughout the Islamic world. In 1960, two moderate earthquakes with Richter magnitudes of 5.7 to 5.9 destroyed Agadir, Morocco, leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths have been attributed to faulty construction (and standards), in addition to poor evacuation plans. During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were interviewed about their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likert-scaled responses, including their impression and knowledge of potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. A number of interesting correlations were found. First, television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the 1960 event and earthquakes in general were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of television is the most widely used, efficient and fastest mass communication and education tool. Younger persons (<25 years) were more likely to believe that brick, mortar and cement structures are invariably safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless of whether they be iron-reinforced or substandard (and hazardous) stone or brick structures. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts consistently modified standard ‘rebar’ and concrete construction techniques, since reinforcing iron materials were relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used. Less educated respondents tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or the reply of ‘Allahu a‘lam’ or ‘God knows best’—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was haram or prohibited by Islam. Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was considered fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur‘an and Hadith. Finally, the less educated were generally more likely to say that Allah protects those who are devout and considered any scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste, since only the kafir (non-Muslim) or munafiq (hypocrite) was at risk of death or injury from an earthquake. These findings are important to gaining a better insight of hazard perception and high-risk behaviour in an often poorly rebuilt city that has grown to more than 600,000 people in forty years, and in a region laced by active faulting—all in an effort to improve post-disaster land use, construction and urban development policies.