How Early Can We Tell?: Predictors of Childhood Conduct Disorder and Adolescent Delinquency *

It is often argued that intervention efforts can benefit from the early identification of children at risk for antisocial disorders. Little is known, however about the predictive efficacy of early predictors This study examined the predictive power of a variety of characteristics of the preschool child for antisocial outcome at ages 11 and 15. The subjects were 1,037 members of a longitudinal investigation of a New Zealand birth cohort. Groups with no disorders (n = 837), disorders other than antisocial disorders (n =37), and antisocial disorders (n = SO) were defined. Preschool descriptors were screened for their predictive power. A discriminant function analysis was computed with the jive most promising preschool variables. The function correctly classified 81 % of subjects as antisocial, or not. at age 11, and 66% of subjects as delinquent, or not, at age 15. Having preschool behavior problems was the single best predictor of antisocial disorders at age 11. This result is consistent with earlier findings that, among measures assessed in childhood, behavior problems are the best predictor of later antisocial outcome.