The Changing Structure of Property Crime in an Affluent Society

This study examines the relationship between two forms of property (cash and coin in banks and registered motor vehicles) and the amount of theft against that property for the years 1930 through 1965. The study finds that the relationships (using both raw and de-trended data) are negative during the 1930's and early 1940's, but positive thereafter. A time-lag analysis shows that the relationships apparently are not spurious and that changes in the abundance of property precede changes in the amount of crime against that property. That the sign of the relationship has changed from negative to positive is attributed to changes in the population of criminals who prey on these forms of property and their varying responses to property abundance.