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We analyze technology adoption in industries where network externalities are significant. The pattern of adoption depends on whether technologies are sponsored. A sponsor is an entity that has property rights to the technology and hence is willing to make investments to promote it. Key findings include the following: (1) compatibility tends to be undersupplied by the market, but excessive standardization can occur; (2) in the absence of sponsors, the technology superior today has a strategic advantage and is likely to dominate the market; (3) when one of two rival technologies is sponsored, that technology has a strategic advantage and may be adopted even if it is inferior; (4) when two competing technologies both are sponsored, the technology that will be superior tomorrow has a strategic advantage.
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Michael L. Katz
Marshall Space Flight Center
Carl Shapiro
University of California, Berkeley
Journal of Political Economy
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Katz et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
synapsesocial.com/papers/69d7eeab5c3030ff03d185e5 — DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/261409
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