Surgery for aortic stenosis in elderly patients. A study of surgical risk and predictive factors.

BACKGROUND: Aortic stenosis is the most common valvular lesion occurring among elderly patients and has become extremely frequent because of changing demographics in industrialized countries. Surgical risk after the age of 70 has increased. The increasing older age of patients having surgery justifies an analysis of mortality predictive factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1976 and February 1993, we performed 2871 operations for aortic stenosis. This study concerns 675 patients (278 men and 397 women) who were > or = 75 years old. Mean age was 78.5 +/- 3 years. Associated lesions were found in 226 patients. A bioprosthesis was implanted in 632 patients (93.6%). Concomitant surgical procedures were performed in 133 patients. Surgical mortality was 12.4% (84 deaths). A longitudinal analysis has been carried out over four successive time periods to evaluate population evolution during these 17 years. Statistical analysis was performed on 46 variables. Multivariate analysis found age (P < .0001), left ventricular failure (P < .0001), lack of sinus rhythm (P < .01), and emergency status (P < .02) to be presurgical independent predictive factors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-reducing strategy should both favor relatively early surgery to avoid cardiac failure and emergency situations and pay careful attention to the use of myocardial protection and cardiopulmonary bypass. Indications for surgery should remain broad since analysis failed to determine specific high-risk groups to be eliminated, and surgery remains the only treatment for aortic stenosis.