Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model

Abstract This article describes the mathematical theory underlying an interactive computer program for eliciting the hyperparameters of a subjective conjugate distribution for the multiple linear regression model with the usual normal error structure. Although the methods are heuristic, they are shown to produce hyperparameter estimates satisfying the constraints satisfied by the hyperparameters themselves. An application is given to the problem of predicting the time to fatigue failure of an asphalt-concrete road as a function of several design variables concerning the road.