On the Environments of Tornadic and Nontornadic Mesocyclones

The authors investigated differences in the environments associated with tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones are investigated using proximity soundings. Questions about the definition of proximity are raised. As the environments of severe storms with high spatial and temporal resolution are observed, the operational meaning of proximity becomes less clear. Thus the exploration of the proximity dataset is subject to certain caveats that are presented in some detail. Results from this relatively small proximity dataset support a recently developed conceptual model of the development and maintenance of low-level mesocyclones within supercells. Three regimes of low-level mesocyclonic behavior are predicted by the conceptual model: (i) low-level mesocyclones are slow to develop, if at all, (ii) low-level mesocyclones form quickly but are short lived, and (iii) low-level mesocyclones develop slowly but have the potential to persist for hours. The model suggests that a balance is needed between the midtropospheric storm-relative winds, storm-relative environmental helicity, and low-level absolute humidity to develop long-lived tornadic mesocyclones. In the absence of that balance, such storms should be rare. The failure of earlier forecast efforts to discriminate between tornadic and nontornadic severe storms is discussed in the context of a physical understanding of supercell tornadogenesis. Finally, it is shown that attempts to gather large datasets of proximity soundings associated with rare weather events are likely to take many years.