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For a five-year period, 131 bipolar patients were followed every 6 months; for the next 5 years, they were followed yearly. Each patient was interviewed in a systematic way that gave information about episodes, hospitalizations, cycle lengths and the presence of alcoholism. Women and men were not significantly different in the number of follow-up manic or depressive episodes or hospitalizations. Chronicity from index episode to the end of the 10-year follow-up was uncommon (4%). Alcoholism, which was common in these patients, showed a great diminution at the end of 10 years. Contrary to expectation, cycle lengths showed no systematic decrease in length over the follow-up. In this naturalistic study, treatment intensity was not related to decreasing episodes or to changes in cycle length. The number of episodes in the first 5 years of follow-up was not correlated with the number of episodes in the last 5 years. Cycle lengths in the first 5 years of follow-up were similar in length to the last 5 years of follow-up. A family history of mania in these bipolar patients was associated with more episodes in follow-up than if such a family history were absent. The patients whose alcoholism predated the onset of their affective illness were less likely to have episodes in the follow-up than the patients in whom affective illness predated the onset of the alcoholism.
Winokur et al. (Tue,) studied this question.