Determination of Duplex Doppler Ultrasound Criteria Appropriate to the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trail (NASCET) demonstrated the benefit of carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic patients with > or = 70% carotid stenosis. Screening for detection of significant carotid occlusive disease has relied on duplex Doppler imaging. However, traditional duplex categories (50% to 79%, 80% to 99%) are not directly applicable to NASCET. We sought to evaluate duplex criteria for determination of > or = 70% carotid stenosis. METHODS: Duplex scan and arteriograms of 110 patients (210 carotids), performed within 1 month of each other, were reviewed by blinded readers. Arteriographic stenosis was determined by the NASCET method. Duplex measurements of peak systolic and end-diastolic velocity (PSV, EDV) were recorded, and ratios of velocities in the internal and common carotid arteries (ICA, CCA) were calculated. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), and accuracy were determined. RESULTS: Interobserver agreement for measurement of arteriographic stenosis was "almost perfect" (kappa=0.86). The criteria chosen for detection of > or = 70% stenosis were PSVICA>210 cm/s (sensitivity, 94%; specificity, 77%; PPV, 68% NPV, 96% accuracy, 83%) EDVICA>70 cm/s (sensitivity, 92%; specificity, 60%; PPV, 73%; NPV, 86%; accuracy 77%), PSVica/PSVCCA >3.0 (sensitivity, 91%; specificity, 78%; PPV, 70%; NPV, 94%; accuracy, 83%), and EDVICA/EDVCCA>3.3 (sensitivity, 100%; specificity, 65%; PPV, 65% NPV, 100%; accuracy, 79%). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that > or = 70% carotid stenosis can be reliably determined by duplex Doppler ultrasound. Individual vascular laboratories must validate their own results.